Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales
Search in google:
This volume reflects the current state of scientific knowledge about natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. It covers a wide range of relevant subjects, including the characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean environments as well as the methods used to describe and analyze them, such as proxy data and numerical models. They clearly demonstrate the range, persistence, and magnitude of climate variability as represented by many different indicators. Not only do natural climate variations have important socioeconomic effects, but they must be better understood before possible anthropogenic effects (from greenhouse gas emissions, for instance) can be evaluated. A topical essay introduces each of the disciplines represented, providing the nonscientist with a perspective on the field and linking the papers to the larger issues in climate research. In its conclusions section, the book evaluates progress in the different areas and makes recommendations for the direction and conduct of future climate research. This book, while consisting of technical papers, is also accessible to the interested layperson. Booknews Augmenting the more common studies of climate change that consider either seasons and interannual or the long-term, 50 articles and essays examine changes on a scale that humans might notice in a single lifetime. They cover the atmosphere, the ocean, coupled systems, and proxy indicators of climate. They also offer conclusions and recommendations for research priorities. Includes 14 pages of color plates, mostly satellite images. Annotation c. by Book News, Inc., Portland, Or.
Executive Summary1Ch. 1Introduction5Ch. 2The Atmosphere9Atmospheric Observations: An Essay12Documenting Natural Climatic Variations: How Different is the Climate of the Twentieth Century from That of Previous Centuries?17Variability of African Rainfall on Interannual and Decadal Time Scales32On the Initiation and Persistence of the Sahel Drought44Continental Snow Cover and Climate Variability49Decadal Variations of Snow Cover60Variability and Trends of Precipitation and Snowfall over North America67Asymmetric Trends of Daily Maximum and Minimum Temperature: Empirical Evidence and Possible Causes80Decadal Oscillations in Global Temperature and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide97Observed Variability of the Southern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation111Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean During Winter, 1900-1989120Seasonal-to-Interannual Fluctuations in Surface Temperature over the Pacific: Effects of Monthly Winds and Heat Fluxes133Atmospheric Observations Reference List151Atmospheric Modeling: An Essay164Modeling Low-Frequency Climate Variability: The Greenhouse Effect and the Interpretation of Paleoclimatic Data169Detection of Forced Climate Signals175Constraining Possibilities Versus Signal Detection182Modeling the Possible Causes of Decadal-to-Millennial-Scale Variability187Natural and Forced Variability in the Climate Record199Atmospheric Modeling Reference List211Ch. 3The Ocean233Ocean Observations: An Essay236Marine Surface Data for Analysis of Climatic Fluctuations on Interannual-to-Century Time Scales241Decadal-Scale Variability of Ice Cover and Climate in the Arctic Ocean and Greenland and Iceland Seas253Long-Term Sea-Level Variation264Acoustic Thermometry of Ocean Climate (summary of dinner remarks)273Transient Tracers as a Tool to Study Variability of Ocean Circulation274A Few Notes on a Recent Deep-Water Freshening290The Salinity Decrease in the Labrador Sea over the Past Thirty Years295The Local, Regional, and Global Significance of Exchanges through the Denmark Strait and Irminger Sea305Observational Evidence of Decadal-Scale Variability of the North Atlantic Ocean318Ocean Observations Reference List328Ocean Modeling: An Essay336Sub-Grid-Scale Parameterizations in Oceanic General-Circulation Models339A Stochastic Model of North Atlantic Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales355Decadal-to-Millennial Internal Oceanic Variability in Coarse-Resolution Ocean General-Circulation Models365Thermohaline Circulations and Variability in a Two-Hemisphere Sector Model of the Atlantic384Low-Frequency Ocean Variability Induced by Stochastic Forcing of Various Colors398Ocean Modeling Reference List408Ch. 4Coupled Systems413An Essay414Decade-to-Century Time-Scale Variability in the Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean System: Modeling Issues419North Atlantic Interdecadal Variability in a Coupled Model432Model Studies of the Long-Term Behavior of ENSO442Secular Variability of the ENSO Cycle458Decadal Climate Variations in the Pacific472Coupled Systems Reference List483Ch. 5Proxy Indicators of Climate489An Essay490Monitoring the Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere Using Chemical Records from Long-Lived Corals495Natural Variability of Tropical Climates on 10- to 100-Year Time Scales: Limnological and Paleolimnological Evidence506Decade-to-Century-Scale Variability of Regional and Hemispheric-Scale Temperatures512Interdecadal Temperature Oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere: Evidence from Tasmanian Tree Rings Since 300 B.C.523Variability of Atlantic Circulation on Sub-Millennial Time Scales533Ice Cores as Archives of Decade-to-Century-Scale Climate Variability544Temporal Change in Marine Ecosystems555Maximum Rates of Projected and Actual Increases in Global Mean Temperature as Compared with Bioclimatic Fluctuations572Proxy Indicators of Climate Reference List583Ch. 6Conclusions599Ch. 7Recommendations for Climate-Variability Research Priorities605List of Participants609Index615
