Never Saw It Coming: Cultural Challenges to Envisioning the Worst
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People—especially Americans—are by and large optimists. They are much better at imagining best-case scenarios (I could win the lottery!) than worst-case scenarios (A hurricane could destroy my neighborhood!). This is true not just of their approaches to imagining the future, but of their memories as well: people are better able to describe the best moments of their lives than they are the worst. Though there are psychological reasons for this phenomenon, Karen A. Cerulo, in Never Saw It Coming, considers instead the role of society in fostering this attitude. What kinds of communities develop this pattern of thought, which do not, and what does that say about human ability to evaluate possible outcomes of decisions and events? Cerulo takes readers to diverse realms of experience, including intimate family relationships, key transitions in our lives, the places we work and play, and the boardrooms of organizations and bureaucracies. Using interviews, surveys, artistic and fictional accounts, media reports, historical data, and official records, she illuminates one of the most common, yet least studied, of human traits—a blatant disregard for worst-case scenarios. Never Saw It Coming, therefore, will be crucial to anyone who wants to understand human attempts to picture or plan the future. American Journal of Sociology "A welcome addition. . . . The reader comes away from this book with a new appreciation of the need for mindful attention, resilient action, and skills of improvisation. With these three resources as part of an action repertoire, we will go a long way toward acknowledging and preparing for worst-case scenarios."— Karl E. Weick
1What's the worst that could happen?12The breadth and scope of positive asymmetry173Practicing positive asymmetry724Positive asymmetry and the subjective side of scientific measurement1225Being labeled the worst - real in its consequences?1396Exceptions to the rule1647Emancipating structures and cognitive styles1938Can symmetrical vision be achieved?233
