The Predictioneer's Game: Using the Logic of Brazen Self-Interest to See and Shape the Future
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Game theory is a fancy label for a simple idea: People compete, and they always do what they think is in their own best interest. A master practitioner whose forecasts have an amazing 90 percent accuracy rate, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita uses game theory and its insights into human behavior to predict and even engineer political, financial, and personal events. In this revelatory book, he shares his methods. Bueno de Mesquita games a range of high-stakes negotiations and conflicts, from the North Korean disarmament talks to the Middle East peace process; provides successful strategies to combat both global warming and terror; and shows how game theory can help you in your own life, whether you want to succeed in a lawsuit, elect the CEO of your company, or simply buy a car. Savvy and shockingly effective, The Predictioneer's Game will change how you understand the world and manage your future. Life's game, and how you play is whether you win or lose. The New York Times - Nicholas Thompson It's a rollicking book—a somewhat more technical and thesis-driven cousin to Steven Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner's Freakonomics…The Predictioneer's Game is genuinely absorbing, as long as one can handle a little math. Bueno de Mesquita gets a lot right, and he shows guts by ending the book with predictions
Introduction ix1 What Will It Take to Put You in This Car Today? 32 Game Theory 101 103 Game Theory 102 294 Bombs Away 475 Napkins for Peace: Defining the Question 666 Engineering the Future 867 Fast-Forward the Present 1038 How to Predict the Unpredictable 1249 Fun with the Past 14010 Dare to Be Embarrassed! 17111 The Big Sweep: The History of Worms, or Bali High, Bali Low 203Acknowledgments 227Appendices 231Afterword to the Paperback Edition 235Appendix to the Paperback Edition 243Notes 249Index 255
