Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
Uncertainty's importance in the problems of risk and policy analysis is explained by outlining its source and nature, discussing techniques for obtaining and using expert judgment and reviewing methods of analyzing uncertainty.
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This book explain the ways in which uncertainty is an important factor in the problems of risk and policy analysis.
Preface; 1. Introduction; 2. Recent milestones; 3. An overview of quantitative policy analysis; 4. The nature and sources of uncertainty; 5. Probability distributions and statistical estimation; 6. Human judgement about and with uncertainty; 7. Performing probability assessment; 8. The propagation and analysis of uncertainty; 9. The graphic communication of uncertainty; 10. Analytica: a software tool for uncertainty analysis; 11. Large and complex models; 12. The value of knowing how little you know; Index.
