Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change
A Framework for Predicting Industry Winners and Losers\ Every day, individuals take action based on how they believe innovation will change industries. Yet these beliefs are largely based on guesswork and incomplete data, and lead to costly errors in judgment.\ Now, internationally renowned innovation expert Clayton M. Christensen and his research partners Scott D. Anthony and Erik A. Roth present a groundbreaking framework for predicting outcomes in the evolution of any industry. Based on...
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Can disruption be useful? Christensen (business administration, Harvard Business School) and his collaborators believe so. They predict industry change using theories of innovation, locating new organizations that use simple, convenient, low-cost innovations to overpower incumbents. Noting that data only describes the past, they assert that working from theories can be useful in predicting such disruptions at an industry, national, or international level. Their examples and case studies include Western Electric, which lost its monopoly over telephone equipment in a lawsuit with a tiny upstart competitor. They also examine the intrusion of discount airlines into a deregulated market, the reasons why new entrants and not established firms created the semiconductor industry, and why for- profit higher education providers are disruptive innovators. Annotation ©2004 Book News, Inc., Portland, OR September 2004 - Inc. Magazine "Just as kids await the latest Harry Potter installment, so do business leaders look for Clayton M. Christensen's next offering."
Section I: How to Use Theory to Analyze 1) Signals of Change; Where are the Opportunities? 2) Competitive Battles: How to Size Up Competitors 3) Firm Choices: Identifying What Choices Matter 4) Non-Market Factors Influence Innovation Section II: Theory-Based Analysis 5) Disruptive Diplomas - The Future of Education 6) Disruption Spreads Its Wings - The Future of Aviation 7) Whither Moore's Law? - The Future of Semiconductors 8) Healing the 800-Pound Gorilla - The Future of Health Care 9) Innovation Overseas - Using Theory to Assess Corporate and Country Strategies 10) Breaking the Wire - The Future of Telecommunications Conclusion: What's Next Appendix Glossary Index About the Authors
\ Inc. Magazine"Just as kids await the latest Harry Potter installment, so do business leaders look for Clayton M. Christensen's next offering."\ —September 2004\ \
